Ray Dalio’s Dollar Crash Prediction. Here’s How It Will Happen

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Cooper Academy - Investing
Published at : 21 Dec 2020
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Ray Dalio has come out and written a bunch of articles which detail the crash of the U.S. dollar (along with other ideas). In this video I want to simplify what Dalio has written, so that you can all wrap your head around what has happened and what may be to come!...

Articles Referred To: https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/

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The United States has enjoyed over 70 years of being the leading reserve currency resulting in having a very strong dollar. This has helped them to be able to borrow a lot of money and grow their empire that we know it to be today.

However, the billionaire Ray Dalio, put lightly, he doesn’t see this lasting forever. Especially when we’re talking the U.S dollar. He’s come out and wrote a bunch of articles on his website called principles, which detail the decline of the U.S. dollar. In this video I want to try sum up the key lessons from these articles and show you why the decline of the U.S dollar is not if, but when…

First of all. What is money? That’s simple. Money is something that we use as a store hold of wealth.

Now throughout time, there is a cycle in the way money works. There is 6 key stages that you need to know.

At the start of the cycle, there is no debt / very low debt and “hard money”.
So back in the day, they used simple things like grain and beads as a sort of hard money. More recently It’s being gold, which you use to exchange for goods and services. So that’s stage 1 very simple, hard money is used as currency.

Then stage 2 comes, which is Claims on hard money.
Obviously it’s very tough carrying metal money around everywhere, so what they did is they developed paper money. Paper money is just a claim on some form of hard money. Aka United States before 1933, money was simply a claim on a certain amount of gold. So money back then was actually backed by something, unlike today…

Then stage 3 follows which is increased debt. And this is the stage where people discover the wonders of debt and credit. We can now borrow these “paper claims”, and only have to pay it back at a later date in the future…

However what happens, is you guessed. People get too greedy they borrow what they can’t afford and too much debt grows. Eventually there is more paper claims on hard money, then there is hard money in the system which leads to some problems…

And then Stage 4 comes which is the debt crisis defaults and devaluation.

People demand to get their hard money out of the bank. The bank realizes it doesn’t have enough and they either default or get bailed out by the government. Aka like what happened in the 1930’s the huge bank run, when people realized the banks didn’t have the assets to pay back their money…

And then stage 5 comes fiat money which is the stage we are currently in. The promise to deliver “hard money” becomes to difficult and too constrictive, so generally the government decides to abandon this system and use fiat money. Fiat money, this is just paper money that the government can now print as much as they possibly desire, because it’s not backed by anything. What a wonderful idea.

Of course it all seems well and good when they implement the idea, but of course huge ramifications are to come from it.

So this change to fiat money, the start of stage 5 happened in 1971. 1971 president Nixon told the world that the dollar would no longer be tied to gold. All banks, people, companies, don’t worry we can now print as much money as we possibly want.

And this was the start of the final stages of the long-term currency cycle…
You see what happens in stage 5, is governments, people, companies tend to get greedy and they look to expand economically, as much as they possibly can. So they pile up a lot of debt. Eventually they can’t afford to pay their debt payments back and they have to print money to service their debts and obligations.

Just think about what’s happened in 2020, they’ve printed trillions of dollars…

The problem when you print a lot of money, is you devalue it.
If there were 100 Mona Lisa’s in the world instead of one, the painting wouldn’t be worth so much.

If there were 1000 Niagara falls, it wouldn’t be as famous. You get the point I’m trying to make, the more you have of something, the less valuable it becomes.

And this is what happens when you print a lot of money, people flee out of the currency. And they look for an alternative store hold of wealth. Which is a big problem with the American dollar...

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