In this episode of Real Turkey, Guldem Atabay and Atilla Yesilada analyze the first batch of summer data from Turkey. Judging by PMI and the lesser known SAMEKS composite PMI, the production side is recovering rapidly. However, credit growth has sharply decelerated hinting at a very shallow recovery. Turkey will produce current account surpluses over summer months, underpinning the exchange rate, but growth is unlikely to survive autumn. Despite uncertainty about Fed intentions and the trend pace of inflation, Central Bank is certain to initiate an easing cycle in its July meeting.
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